POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – Amid ongoing concerns about climate change, new research indicates that the amount of land affected by wildfires across Europe could nearly triple by 2100. The study projects a 192% increase in annual burned areas under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This comes in the wake of significant wildfires in 2026 that impacted regions including Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The research highlights hot, dry, and windy conditions as the primary climate factors influencing fire risk, as identified in the analysis.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study utilized two fire models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Scientists examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The former corresponds to roughly 1.8°C of warming, while the latter approaches about 3.6°C. To isolate the effects of socioeconomic factors, the team conducted separate experiments where these variables remained constant.
Under the low-emissions scenario, one model estimated that about 39% more land would burn annually by the end of the century. Conversely, another model suggested a potential decrease in burned land under lower warming, due to differing representations of human influences. The high-emissions scenario, however, predicted much more substantial growth in burned areas, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe—regions that have historically experienced relatively little fire activity.
Models confirm emissions as key drivers of burned land
The research identified fire weather and firefighting capacity as critical factors influencing future wildfire activity across Europe. Other variables such as population density, vegetation changes, and land use also play significant roles at regional scales. Maik Billing, the lead author working at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that the study distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather and human influences that affect fire spread.
Advances in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could potentially reduce burned areas by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios without these improvements. The potential for reduction is greater under the low-emissions pathway and diminishes with higher levels of warming. Despite ongoing enhancements in fire management, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could still experience increased fire activity due to intense climate change, according to the study. Thomas Hickler, a co-author from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, contributed to these findings.
Effective fire management can limit wildfire expansion
This research arrives during an especially severe wildfire season in 2026, characterized by persistent dry conditions and extreme heat that have fueled large-scale fires. While southern Europe has faced some of the most intense outbreaks, regions further north have also been affected. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The authors attribute these shifts to changing fire weather patterns driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
It is important to note that the projected 192% increase represents a modeled scenario under high-emissions assumptions and the study’s specific parameters. The findings also suggest a considerably smaller increase under lower emissions and significant reductions if fire management efforts are strengthened. Nevertheless, even with ongoing improvements, the report indicates that fire activity could still grow in many European regions as climate change intensifies. The key factors influencing future burned areas remain emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and the capacity for fire management.