MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has set an ambitious goal to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 within a newly endorsed industry development plan. This target is included in the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government approved the plan via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, establishing long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and sector growth.
The strategy presents four potential pathways for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary scenario, output is projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036. Subsequently, it is expected to grow to 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios forecast lower 2050 production levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes under the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes under the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia also established export goals. The main scenario envisions coal exports hitting 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. These exports are forecasted to increase to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and reach 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan covers both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Goals for Coal Production and Export Volumes
The government’s plan calls for maintaining current mining capacities while also expanding additional coal resources. It emphasizes a larger role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together accounted for 48.3% of the country’s coal output in 2024. The document projects their combined share increasing to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia’s reported coal reserves exceed 273 billion tonnes.
The strategy also sets specific goals for coal processing and extraction techniques. In 2024, the share of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9%. By 2050, this figure is expected to reach between 74% and 76%. Open-pit mining represented 78.4% of total production in 2024, with projections indicating its share rising to between 82% and 85% over the long term. The plan also incorporates measures related to productivity, technological advancements, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal Industry Strategy Extends to 2050
The implementation of Russia’s coal development plan will be divided into three phases. The initial phase, until 2030, will focus on expanding production and supporting industry growth. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, aims to improve coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final stage from 2037 to 2050 will concentrate on consolidating progress and further technological improvements. The Energy Ministry will oversee the rollout, working with federal, regional, and other relevant organizations, and will provide annual progress reports to the Ministry of Economic Development under government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the new programme during a government session on September 21. This initiative replaces Russia’s previous coal sector plan, which was approved through 2035 in 2020. Novak indicated that the plan anticipates a sixfold rise in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains the central scenario of the plan rather than an unconditional forecast.